In this episode of NewsBTC’s daily technical analysis videos, we are looking again at the Bitcoin BTCUSD monthly chart now that the August monthly candle has closed and we finally have new data to analyze.
The video shows the best, bad and ugly.
VIDEO: Bitcoin Price Analysis (BTCUSD): September 1, 2022
In yesterday’s video, we focused on the nail-biter of a monthly close we had last night, where bulls were just barely able to hold onto support. With a new monthly candle open, today’s video attempts to see where the crypto market is headed, if the bottom is in, or if we’ll see an extended accumulation phase.
August Aftermath: What Happened to the Bitcoin Monthly Candle?
Bitcoin closed above the former all time high resistance turned support. The analysis shows this to be the best news. Unfortunately, Bitcoin lost the Coinbase line in the past.
Trendlines are subject to change, and it is possible that the trend lines of the longer term may be held by one hair.
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Technical Update With Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku and More
It is encouraging to note that the monthly price remained in the lower Bollinger Band. Closing outside it could have led to an extended downmove – much like past uptrends continue to ride the upper band after a strong breakout.
Bulls also have more hope with the Ichimoku monthly, but it is just a delay to what is coming. While the tenkan-sen remains above the kijunsen, the kijunsen has begun to climb upward.
However, the lines have typically crossed on the monthly before Bitcoin has bottomed, which could suggest the bottom isn’t it. A cloud twist is also notable, and has been a sign of a trend shift in the past. We won’t see a cloud twist until November 2022 the earliest, suggesting that Bitcoin could spend more time trending down or sideways before we see a greater recovery.
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The Timing of a Possible Turning Point For Crypto Winter
The Fisher Transform monthly has not yet turned bullish. It is useful for identifying exact turning points during market cycles. As the tool descends towards an upward-sloping trendline, it is yet another indicator that Bitcoin are at a prolonged bottom similar to 2015 and 2014.
Monthly Relative Strength Index has reached the bottom boundary of an ongoing downward trend channel. This was the lowest point of the bear market in 2018, while it barely crossed the line. The 2014 and 2015 bear markets were more comfortable grinding to the same place. This monthly close gave us our second touch of the line and could suggest similar behavior to Bitcoin’s first bear market.
LMACD is at an uptrend line which may indicate that momentum could turn upwards. This is a potentially encouraging sign. In order to signal weakening bearish momentum in September and all months moving ahead, the histogram must change from pink to green. This would confirm the bull trend.
Also, we take a close look at the cyclical behaviour in Bitcoin. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Basic Case: Does it Make Sense To Buy Bitcoins Here?
The monthly chart of Bitcoin fundamental tools looks pretty bad. The hash ribbons are yet to issue buy signals for monthly timeframes despite an triggering signal on daily. Bitcoin is also above the lowest point of the cost of production – a metric that analyzes the cost miners incur to produce each BTC on average.
This year’s bear market close was one month lower than the mean. Notably, although the key close was below the average during the previous crypto winter it is important to note that the swing low had already been in place when the event occurred. It could be that Bitcoin trades sideways, accumulates at these prices for a while, and $17,500 may eventually hold the bottom.
Also, we take a close look at the cyclical behaviour in Bitcoin. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
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Featured image taken from iStockPhoto. Charts from TradingView.com