In this month’s The Bitcoin MonthlyARK Invest specialized in Ethereum and the Merge. As a side dish, they did publish some premium and review-worthy stats that we’re about to cover. The Bitcoin network continues to produce block after block, regardless of the market. However, the stats generated by this activity can help to understand the market.
That’s where ARK Invest’s The Bitcoin Monthly comes in. The publication defines itself as “an “earnings report” that details on-chain activity and showcases the openness, transparency, and accessibility of blockchain data.” So, the data we’re about to cover is The Bitcoin Monthly’s reason to be.
The Bitcoin Monthly: A 200-Week Moving Average and Investor Cost Basis
- “After closing above its 200-week moving average in July,1 bitcoin’s price reversed and slipped below it in August. Currently at $22,680, the 200-week moving average now seems to be resistance.”
The center couldn’t hold. The price’s recovery was short-lived. The markets have turned red all over the place, including bitcoin. As of the writing date, bitcoin is trading at $19874. For those keeping score, that’s just below last cycle’s all-time high of $20K. Something that shouldn’t happen, but a few degrees of error are always understandable.
- “Bitcoin currently trades above investor cost basis at $19,360, its strongest on-chain support level (…) Importantly, throughout bitcoin’s history, trading at investor price usually marks a bottoming process.”
Although times are difficult, bitcoin continues to trade above the investor cost basis. The Bitcoin Monthly clarifies, “Investor price is calculated by subtracting the cost basis of miners from the general cost basis of the market.” As we see it, The Bitcoin Monthly is calling the bottom. They didn’t say it in those exact words, but they certainly insinuated it.
Are we really at the bottom?
Source: BTC/USD at TradingView.com| Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
The Bitcoin Monthly: A Comparison of Short-Term and Long-Term Holders The Bitcoin Monthly: Short-Term Holder Vs. Long-Term Holder
- “The short-term-holder (STH) cost basis is approaching its longterm-holder (LTH) cost basis ––an event that has marked cyclical bottoms in the past. (…) Since the end of July, the difference between short- and long-term holders’ cost basis has shrunk from $5,840 to $2,500”
The Bitcoin Monthly sees it as a sign that “the market typically is capitulating and shifting back to long-term participation.” Bitcoin’s consolidation process might be ending soon. But, it is possible to stay for a time at the bottom. This has been done before. The bottom line is that every indicator The Bitcoin Monthly highlighted for this month points in the same direction. To the bottom.
- “The supply held by long-term bitcoin holders is 34,500 coins away from reaching 13.55 million– its all-time high. The supply of long-term holders accounts for 70.6% total outstanding supply.
This stat is among the most bullish. To clarify, coins that haven’t moved in 155 days or more qualify as “long-term holder supply.” The tourists and the people with high hopes left a long time ago. And the lion’s share of the bitcoin supply is now in the true believers’ possession. A remarkable situation that doesn’t get mentioned enough.
Information about the Ethereum Merge
- “In August, ether outperformed bitcoin by 7.6% (…) Historically, ether has outperformed bitcoin during “riskon” bull markets and underperformed during “risk-off” bear markets.”
The merge’s effects affected the market throughout the whole narrative. Even though we’re in a “risk-off bear market,” ETH took over and lead the market for a while there. They accomplished the mythical feat and… the market turned on them. After what seemed like mission accomplished, ETH’s price started to bleed.
Hidden behind a secret door, that’s what The Bitcoin Monthly contained.
Maxim Hopman, Featured Image on Unsplash Charts by TradingView| Charts by TradingView