Arthur Hayes is the co-founder of Bitmex and was previously its CEO. He has now published a blog article about current cryptocurrency market conditions. Hayes says currently there’s an inability to recognize the cyclical nature of markets and the “inconvenient truth” that is crypto is now moving in “lockstep” with market equities. Hayes predicts that the Nasdaq 100 will experience an important 30%-45% drawdown, and major crypto assets such as bitcoin and ethereum will also see a drop in value amid all of the stock market chaos.
While the Long Term Crypto Market Outlook Was Bright, Bitmex Co-Founder’s Short Term Perspective Is Scary
On Monday, the crypto economy fell below $2 trillion and plummeted 4.7% to $1.98 Trillion. The downturn is being attributed to the Federal Reserve’s expected rate hikes as economists believe the U.S. central bank is “expected to deliver two back-to-back half-point interest rate hikes in May and June,” according to a Reuters poll. According to the poll, 40% of economists predict a recession next year. The co-founder and CEO of Bitmex Arthur Hayes made some predictions in a blog post that was published mid-March.
The last blog post on March 16 explained that Hayes believes the end of the “Petro Dollar / Euro Dollar monetary system” is drawing closer. Hayes also said that he predicted gold’s value could reach $10K per ounce while bitcoin (BTC) marches to $1 million per coin. Hayes, however, predicts a downturn in crypto markets. This is according to a blog post that was published April 10. Hayes’ blog post, which shared a lot of charts and showed that crypto and bitcoin markets are closely related at the moment.
Hayes believes that the Nasdaq 100 will shudder, and that crypto markets will soon follow suit. He speculates that the NDX will drop by roughly 30% or even as much as 50% lower but he’s not sure. Hayes says that the Federal Reserve stopped all monetary easing activities and it is now over. “[NDX]Are you looking for a 30% discount? … Down 50%? … your guess is as good as mine,” Hayes said on Sunday. “But let’s be clear – the Fed isn’t planning to grow its balance sheet again any time soon, meaning equities ain’t going any higher,” the Bitmex co-founder added.
Crypto Derivatives Exchange Co-Founder’s Predictions: Bitcoin $30,000, Ethereum $2,500
Hayes predicts the crypto market will be following the lead of U.S. technology stocks, and that it will see a significant drop in its value over the coming months. The crypto derivatives exchange co-founder highlights that there are “many crypto market pundits who believe the worst is over” but he believes they “ignore the inconvenient truth.” While Hayes predicts the NDX will slide by 30% or even 50% lower, he predicts bitcoin (BTC) will drop to $30K per unit. Hayes expects that the $2,500 price point for ethereum, the second most popular crypto asset (ETH), will be reached. Hayes believes the numbers he came up with are not technical but based on his beliefs.
“There isn’t much science to these numbers other than a gut feeling,” Hayes writes. “The annoying part is that there are a number of altcoins I have begun to accumulate because the prices are quite attractive. Even though some of these coins are already down 75% from their all-time high, I don’t believe even they can escape the coming crypto carnage. As such, I am buying crash June 2022 puts on both bitcoin and ether.”
Hayes ends his blog post by saying that of course, his “market prognosis might be wrong” and he is fine with that. Hayes will only be liable for the crash protection premium that he has paid if he’s wrong. “I will be wrong if the correlation between bitcoin / ether and NDX starts dropping before a crash in risk asset markets,” Hayes’s blog post concludes. “I’m perfectly okay with that outcome, as I’m already in a long crypto position.”
What do you think about the crypto market predictions from the Bitmex co-founder’s recent blog post? Comment below and let us know how you feel about the subject.
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