The Bitcoin price has returned to $48,000, and the latest weekly close shows that momentum is turning bullish for only the second time this year. How will this affect the market for crypto in the months and weeks ahead, now that bulls are on the move?
Bullish Weekly Bitcoin Momentum and the MACD
The market is always looking for equilibrium. A large movement can pull an asset downward, just as the momentum that drove it upward when it happened, or vice versa. It is this momentum that determines if and how a trend will change.
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The Moving Average Convergence divergence is a better tool to measure momentum than any other. Logarithmic MACD, which is a logarithmic measure of momentum in weekly time frames, has shown green on histograms and made a bull crossing between signal and MACD lines. This is the first appearance of the signal in 2022. 
Bullish weekly momentum is now only on TradingView.com| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
This chart shows that while momentum shifts can produce significant trends changes, they tend to be behind specific tops and bottoms. It is for this reason that the MACD is considered a “lagging indicator.” Lagging indicator or not, the results are what matter.
Below is an analysis of bull crossovers in the past. Although red rallies did not produce significant new ATHs on average, they still produced a 40% increase. The return on three main impulses was roughly 327% for green rallies. A potential bullish divergence is possible with the most recent bull cross. A divergence was noticed before the end of 2017’s bull cycle.
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
This Wavelength reveals the current crypto cycle
Combining the analysis, we predict a possible 40% rise in Bitcoin prices from today’s low-end, although this would not be enough to break a record. A possible 327 percent rally at the higher end of this scale would take the highest cryptocurrency to $200,000 per BTC.
This Bitcoin “Heatmap” Suggests A Blazing Cycle Peak Is Still Ahead| This Bitcoin “Heatmap” Suggests A Blazing Cycle Peak Is Still Ahead
Momentum flows in waves. The chart below shows sine waves overlayed over the LMACD to emphasize intra-cycle wavelengths. Combining Elliott Wave Theory with sine waves, these same sine waves predict the odd-numbered impulses as well as the bottom C-waves accurately.
Brandt's comparision with another look is good for measure. Source: TradingView.com.| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
You can simply look at the smaller harmonic waves as pieces of the larger blue cycle wave. The blue wave structure added helps to explain the sudden strength of Black Thursday in 2020, and why Bitcoin price couldn’t reach $100,000 in late 2021 as the market had expected. Major cycle events are created when the combined strength of larger waves and smaller harmonics is strong.
The final wave of Bitcoin may have begun if momentum follows the same wave structure.
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Featured image taken from iStockPhoto. Charts taken from TradingView.com