Some analysts say that Bitcoin’s current price action aligns with the Bitcoin halving model, leading them to expect a $24000 bottom before year-end.
The topic of Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle and its effects on BTC’s long-term price is one that has been highly debated within the crypto community.
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According to crypto analysts, Bitcoin will reach $100,000. Analysts are wondering about the next six- to 12-month period. However, Bitcoin did not rise to that level.
The price of Bitcoin is currently below $40,000. According to technical analysis, it’s more probable that BTC will drop further than that it will rebound to its $40,000 to $45,000 level. Let’s look at what analysts think about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
Bitcoin could reach $24,000 by the Year End
Crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user “Wolves of Crypto” discussed the four-year cycle theory on Twitter. This theory suggests that the “most probable bear market bottom for Bitcoin will take place in November/December 2022.”
According to the projection, Bitcoin reached $68,789 in November 2021. This was its highest point since the beginning of the current cycle. The corrective phase of the BTC market, which is usually observed after the top cycle, has now begun.
According to the analyst,
The 200–week SMA has been the long-tested bear market bottom indicator for Bitcoin, and hence, the bottom will likely be placed at ~$24,000.
If the model holds, bitcoin could surpass its previous highs sometime in September or August 2023.
Willy Woo, an independent analyst in the market, suggested that Bitcoin may reach its bottom before the year 2022. He mentioned, “Orange coin seems a bit undervalued here.”
The “Highly Liquid Supply Shock” metric measures how much demand and supply have changed from the long-term average.
As you can see, Bitcoin prices rose shortly after the oscillator dropped to its current level.
He said;
Investors should wait until the law of means reversion is in effect.
BTC Mid-term low
Philip Swift, crypto market analyst, suggested Bitcoin might be in an optimal accumulation zone. This point is marked by AASI, or active address sentiment indicator.
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“The AASI is back in the green zone. This suggests that the Bitcoin price change is at a sensible level relative to active address change,” said Swift. “This tool has a good hit rate across bull and bear markets for signaling a mid-term low.”
The AASI readings are similar to those it has had previously. Bitcoin’s price was also low at that time. It then rose in value a few weeks later.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is generally followed, however, Bitcoin’s growth is slowing down than we expected.
Pixabay featured image, Chart from Tradingview