Bitcoin has found support at $43,000 for short term as it reverses some gains made in the past week. The first crypto by market cap is displaying more strength and managed to close February’s monthly candle in the green, something that last happened back in Q4, 2021.
Bitcoin Breaks Above 50-Day SMA, Will BTC Ride It Out To $50,000?| Bitcoin Breaks Above 50-Day SMA, Will BTC Ride It Out To $50,000?
Bitcoin is trading at $43,985 as of the writing. This represents a 16.9% gain over the previous week.
A recent updateQCP Capital reiterated its bullish stance. As NewsBTC recently reported, the firm published a monthly report on the crypto market and made a deep dive into the factors impacting BTC’s price at the moment.
That conflict between Russia and Ukraine is, of course, one of the most important. QCP Capital analyzed the market’s performance following a conflict, and compared it with the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and the Crimea crisis in 2014.
The market responds to major arm conflict eruptions on several occasions but then sees relief. QCP Capital wrote the following:
Selling wars has been an excellent way to purchase large-scale superpower wars. Markets saw positive returns in the 3-6 month period following invasions such as the Vietnam war (1964), Gulf War (1991), Afghan War(2001), Iraq War(2003), and Crimean Crisis (2013).
QCP Capital believes that other macro events will cause volatility in Bitcoin and the crypto markets. This first event will be on March 10.ThWhen the U.S. will publish its most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI), it is scheduled to be published. QCP Capital has been added
We expect volatility to occur in the coming weeks due to significant macro-events. US CPI on 10 March and the FOMC rate decision on 16 March will shift the market’s focus back on the Fed.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Phase Before Bears Retake Control
BTC, cryptocurrencies and the entire pandemic in 2020 had a strong CPI. But it quickly became a factor that was negative as the FED indicated that there would be a change in its monetary policies to curb inflation. Now, the market is uncertain about the FED’s reaction to the conflict, and its potential impact on inflation. QCP Capital reported:
The market wants to know how the Fed reacts to war, and the serious inflationary effects that have followed. Already Powell’s testimony earlier today in the House was noticeably more dovish and the probability of a 50 bps hike in March has been priced down.
Thus, potentially contributing to Bitcoin’s recent relief rally from the mid-levels at $30,000s, and why the bulls could remain in control for a couple of months. The market was expecting a more aggressive FED, and the next FOMC meeting could clear out a lot of the uncertainty surrounding BTC’s future performance.
A dovish FED could imply more gains for BTC’s price in the coming months. However, QCP Capital doesn’t rule out potential downside risks going into Q3 as market participants reduce risk to adjust to the monetary tightening.
Although the Russia-Ukraine war may have brought about unexpected consequences, it also highlights the value of cryptocurrency as an alternative financial system to the traditional one. QCP Capital believes that Bitcoin and its crypto market will be the foundation for one of the greatest wealth transfers ever made.
| Bitcoin could benefit from interest rate hikes in 2022 if you follow the FED.
Bullish investors could profit from any downturn in price movements. According to the firm:
(…) this coming dip could be the best opportunity to build up a structural long position in crypto. We believe that the war has triggered a tectonic shift which will set the stage for a crypto bull run over many decades.