It is clear that Bitcoin was ripped apart by bears in the past few months, after hitting a record-breaking November high. Even though the rally reached new heights, it is still considered a failure with no dramatic conclusion.
What if the rally occurred during a bear period that is now ending? A new comparison shows that there have been bear seasons in Bitcoin dating back to 2018, which could mean it’s almost time for another bull phase.
Bull Market Cyclical Behaviour
Months ago, the term “few” was thrown around by the crypto community because not enough people understood the potential of what Bitcoin could do for them financially. Few people expect Bitcoin to rally today.
Deep corrections are often necessary when the hive is at its most frenetic. Bitcoin bears want to get below $30,000 right now, but it is possible they won’t ever do so, according to a new analysis.
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Every market displays cyclical behavior over multiple time periods. You can find bear or bull markets. There may also be uptrends or downtrends in them depending on your mood.
However, what if these mood shifts could be predicted? That’s what the below comparison aims to find out.
The comparison chart shows that bears are in trouble. Source: TradingView.com, BTCUSD| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Bitcoin Bear Phases
The comparison shows that the 2018 bear market and 2019-2020 bear phases are contrasted with the current consolidation phase. Each fractal takes approximately 460 days. A short bullish impulse shocks the entire world by alternately balancing between bear phases.
Although bull impulses only last for 98 days they can cause prices to rise to new heights. These bull phases produce a minimum of 300% ROI. The price of Bitcoin would rise to $120,000 if it had a 300% return starting at $40,000
This Bitcoin “Heatmap” Suggests A Blazing Cycle Peak Is Still Ahead| This Bitcoin “Heatmap” Suggests A Blazing Cycle Peak Is Still Ahead
Each bear phase lasted just under 14 months. Edwin “Sedge” Coppock, creator of the technical indicator called the Coppock curve, found that the average time it takes for a human to get over mourning a loss was an average of 11 to 14 months. This, in theory, is how long it should take the average investor to get over their “loss” related to Bitcoin and are able to think positively again.
There are only days before another bullish impulse starts based on these comparisons. Will Bitcoin’s price drop below $30,000 as the market anticipates or will it reverse?
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Featured image taken from iStockPhoto. Charts from TradingView.com