Why The Crypto Downtrend Could End On New Year’s Eve

Could the China ban be to blame for recent Bitcoin sales that decimated the entire crypto market? This is the most common theory. Citizens are now selling their assets in fear as main Chinese exchanges shut down. They don’t know if they’re going to be able to transact or even sell their cryptocurrencies in the future, so they’re going back to the Yuan. We have Arcane Research charts and a carrot that prove it. 

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Let’s stop wasting time and go to the hard data.

How’s The China Ban Treating Huobi?

This headline: provided by this carrotThis is the result. “Asia’s largest exchange, Huobi, has stopped related trading in China. Bitcoin has been flowing from Asia to the US and Europe for some time.” To elaborate on that, we bring out good friends at Arcane Research’s Weekly Update. “The final impact of the Chinese bitcoin ban from September is unfolding. After gradually removing Chinese mainland users, Huobi’s share of the global open interest has fallen to 2%, down from its Feb 15th, 2020 peak of 20%.”

They have the charts to back it up:

Open Interest Huobi and OKEx - Arcane Research

BTC Futures Open Interest OKEx & Huobi| Source: Weekly Update

Plus, you will find even more important data and dates.

“Huobi has accelerated its retirement of Chinese mainland customers. Huobi stopped registrations for mainland Chinese clients on Sept 24, 2018. Huobi stopped spot trading with Chinese citizens on December 15th. Additionally, from Dec 15th to Dec 31st, Chinese mainland customers are only able to sell digital assets.”

So, the crypto downtrend could end on New Year’s Eve because it’s the last day that Huobi’s “Chinese mainland customers” will be able to sell. Although this may sound exaggerated, take a look at the bloody red chart.

“The sell-pressure from China is real,” and it isn’t only coming from Huobi.

How’s The China Ban Treating OKEx?

The other Chinese giant’s situation is more complex. What’s going on in there? What are their plans for the China ban? There are rumors abound. According to to the carrot, “The ok exchange has not yet issued an announcement on the clearing.” The Weekly Update has a little more information, but it’s still convoluted. 

“The public statements from OKEx are far more ambiguous than those of Huobi. The exchange stated publicly that it will make the website unavailable to mainland Chinese traders. Further, the exchange has stated that it will not set up offices and teams in mainland China while maintaining the policy of “exiting the Chinese mainland market.” In OKEx’s subreddit, the OKEx helpdesk shared a screenshot from its P2P market, currently allowing traders to trade using the Chinese Yuan.”

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The first graph also shows that OKEx’s open interest share has been in decline. “In April 2020, OKEx accounted for 30% of the open interest in the futures market, in stark contrast to today’s 8% market share.” The signal is clear, even if the situation is not.

BTCUSD price chart for 12/22/2021 - TradingView

BTC price chart 12/22/2021 Coinbase Source: BTC/USD TradingView.com| Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com

How about Binance?

Sadly, we don’t have as much data about them. The carrot claims that “Binance will be partially cleared at the end of the year.” It also informs us that “Binance’s net position change recently red (likely because of China),” and gives us two very informative charts. They clearly demonstrate the sell-pressure generated by the China ban. Binance may be red but the Kraken, which is centered in America and Europe is green.

So, is the crypto downtrend going to end on New Year’s Eve? These numbers speak for themselves. Let’s cross our fingers, nevertheless.

Myriams, Pixabay Charts by TradingView| Charts by TradingView

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