Since bitcoin’s $20,000 low, the chase is on for the bottom. Given that the bear market has not been long in the making, it stands to reason that the bull market isn’t here just yet. Knowing when the cryptocurrency is at its lowest can make it easier to invest and previous bear trends can be a guide to what might happen.
Bitcoin Bear Markets – Previous
Some important trends may emerge before there is a bottom for bitcoin, as evidenced by the most recent bear markets. As the crypto winter continues, it is important to be aware of what happened in both the 2018 and 2014 bear markets.
The length of previous bear market periods is something you should first consider. It seems like the number of days before the market bottoms is decreasing in the two previous bear markets. The 2014 bear market saw 407 days until a Bitcoin bottom, while the 2018 bear-market only had 364 days. This suggests that it’s possible that this market bottom will be shorter than usual, but also that it shows the market still has a long way to go.
BTC bear market trends | Source: Arcane Research
For such figures to be achieved, bitcoin’s market needs to hit December. If history is repeatable, it would mean that investors would have to wait for a prolonged period with low volatility.
One thing to consider is how the on-chain indicator performs. These indicators are typically low at the bottom of bitcoin’s decline. According to Bitcoinist, the on-chain indicators reached a long-term low, which may indicate a trend towards or at least a way toward a bottom. Similar to the bear market, the current levels match those of the past.
Trending BTC at $19,000. Source: BTCUSD from TradingView.com| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
This is also supported by bitcoin’s low volatility. For example, back in 2014, the low volatility range lasted for 280 days, while 2018’s lasted for 130 days. This trend also shows a decrease in days it takes to get to a bottom. BTC’s current low volatility has lasted around 121 days.
This is because these are only a few of the many factors that can determine the end of bear markets and start of bull markets. Human sentiment is the most crucial and unpredictable factor. In the end, bitcoin’s price will respond to the supply and demand balance in the market.
Featured image taken from Analytics Insight. Charts from Arcane Research and TradingView.com.
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