On-chain data shows the Bitcoin 30-day long-term holder SOPR hasn’t yet reached the historical bottom level during the current cycle.
Recent decline in Bitcoin 30 Day Long-Term Holder SOPR
As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the long-term holders haven’t attained their maximum pressure point yet.
The “Spent Output Profit Ratio” (or SOPR in short) is an indicator tells us whether the average Bitcoin investor is selling at a profit or at a loss right now.
This metric indicates the total market is making some profits currently if it is lower than 1.
The indicator with values higher than the threshold, on the other hand suggests that investors overall are trading at a loss.
“Long-term holders” (LTHs) are a cohort of Bitcoin investors who hold their coins for at least 155 days before selling or moving them.
Below is a chart showing the trends in the BTC SOPR 30-day moving average over the past several years, specifically for LTHs.
Source: CryptoQuant| Source: CryptoQuant
The graph above shows that the 30 day MA Bitcoin LTH SOPR appears to have reached a level similar to the bottom of each previous cycle.
These touches of the level in the loss region didn’t exactly coincide with the cycle lows, but they were still quite close, making them good buying opportunities for the crypto.
In recent months, as the bear has taken over, the indicator’s value has declined below the 1 mark, implying the LTHs have been selling at a loss recently.
While the metric has declined deep into the red zone by this point, it’s still not at the level where the historical cycles observed their bottoms.
Though, as the chart shows in the bottom, the DPO (an indicator that’s popularly used for finding cycle tops and bottoms of any quantity) of the LTH SOPR has started turning back up recently.
The LTH SOPR was at its lowest point in bear markets past, not long after DPO reversed such a trend. The likelihood of a repeating pattern in the current bear market is that long-term loss selling will reach its highest point.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $19.2k, up 1% in the past week.
BTC seems to have moved sideways once again in recent days. Source: BTCUSD at TradingView| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured Image from Kanchanara, Unsplash.com. Charts by TradingView.com. CryptoQuant.com.