Vitalik Buterin, the inventor of Ethereum tookThe controversial Bitcoin price model Stock – To-Flow (S2F) is our target. Buterin believes the model is “not looking good” and openly criticized it because it gives crypto investors a “false sense of certainty”.
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Buterin believes this gives Bitcoin the appearance that it will continue to trend up. This could result in many investors losing their initial investments or more, as the price movement has shown. The following chart was presented by Buterin via Twitter.
I know it’s impolite to gloat and all that, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of certainty and predestination that number-will-go-up are harmful and deserve all the mockery they get.
Created by pseudonym analyst Plan B, as seen in the chart, this model predicted that BTC’s price was going to reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. Many consider the model a failure because Bitcoin’s price trend was to the upside later in that year.
Detractors, like Vitalik Buterin, believe the model fails to take other key variables into consideration and only projects BTC’s price to the upside for the coming future. The model failed to forecast what Bitcoin will do under current economic conditions. These include a drop in global liquidity and an increase of interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
In response to Buterin’s comment, the inventor of the S2F Model, Plan B said:
Some people look for blame after a financial crash. Not only newbies but also “leaders” fall victim to blaming others and playing the victim. Don’t forget those who blame others or those who stay strong after a crash.
You Can Predict the Bitcoin Price.
Plan B made some changes to its S2F model. This refers now to both the original 2019 version and the updated S2F version. As seen below, both versions predict a BTC’s price trending to the upside in 2022 and the foreseeable future.
If BTC stays on its current levels, around or below $20,000, in the coming months the analyst said the S2F model “will be less useful”. The other scenario is that BTC is “extremely undervalued and will bounce back soon”.
Plan B stated:
Even for the future, it is very difficult to make predictions. EMH says it is difficult to predict financial markets.
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As the S2F conversation heated up, Plan B was created. added:
My analysis and charts are free. Never told anybody to buy or what/when/how/howmuch to buy. Now covid, China ban, Russia war and inflation tank all assets including bitcoin … and somehow some weeners blame their investment decisions on me? Lame.
