Why The Bitcoin Price Might Stay At $19,000 Until November

Bitcoin’s price remains rangebound, and it is still not able to see a direction for the second half October. BTC gained some momentum over the week but was quickly rebuffed from an area that was not able to be tested for $20,000, which was critical. 

Bitcoin trades at $19159 as of the writing. This price includes a 2% drop in value over the last 24hrs and sideways movement for the past seven days. BTC and other top cryptocurrencies by market cap are following BTC’s lead, with sideways activity recorded over the same period. 

Bitcoin price BTC BTCUSDT
BTC’s price moving sideways on the daily chart. Source: Tradeview BTCUSDT

What Time Will the Bitcoin Price Reach This Level?

Bitcoin prices range between $18,600-$20,500. All bullish momentum is limited by macroeconomic forces. Since September following the Ethereum Merge in September 2017, Bitcoin has lost steam due to lack of bullish narratives. 

Market participants remain unaware of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed), and the measures it takes to reduce inflation. This metric is at its highest level in 40 years as the Federal Reserve raises its interest rates to try and cool down inflation. 

This has led to market participants losing their risk appetite and an overall collapse of traditional equities and Bitcoin prices. QCP Capital’s trading desk thinks this status quo may be over in the next months.

In a market update, the firm pointed at specific signals hinting at a potential pivot in the central banks’ approach to attacking inflation. QCP Capital first believes that the United Kingdom has made positive announcements regarding risk-on assets such as Bitcoin.

Headline news of U.K.’s Hunt tearing up Truss’ mini-budget, reversing tax-cut plans and reviewing the £2,500 price cap for energy yielded positive sentiments for markets. 30Y Gilt currently trading at 4.29%, plunging 48bps after Hunt’s announcements.

This suggests that there is less tightening, and more space for risk-on sentiments to return to global market; it’s possible that other central banks of the Western Hemisphere will follow suit with their own relief measures. 

Although the Fed is being pressured by domestic entities and its international allies, there are no plans to alter its policy. So long as the Fed remains hawkish, Bitcoin’s price will remain stable and so will the prices of any related assets. 

QCP Capital, on the other hand claims China may try to increase its growth but that the Asian nation withholds economic data. This uncertainty prompts a bearish sentiment in the Asian market due to fear that China’s economy might be “worse than expected.” 

Global markets continue to be concerned about the United States and China. Market participants might be relieved if the Asian nation publishes its economic information. 

In the North American country, the upcoming Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting might bring back volatility to the market. Accordingly, QCP Capital expects that Bitcoin’s price will be stable up to this point. QCP Capital indicated that markets might get some clarity within the next weeks.

The calendar has very little until November’s FOMC, which will see crypto lag behind equities. With the FOMC nearing its next meeting, crypto is at its lowest level since June.

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