Based on the block generation average of approximately ten minutes per block, 60% progress has been made toward the next Bitcoin block reward. However, most counting clocks rely on the average block generation time of ten minutes. The countdown that uses the current block intervals, which is around 7.65 minutes, shows that the halving may occur as early as 2023.
Bitcoin could be halved in 2023, according to faster block intervals
Just recently, at block height 757,214, mined on October 5, 2022, Bitcoin’s total hashrate tapped an all-time high (ATH) at 321.15 exahash per second (EH/s). Block intervals are much shorter than normal and have fallen well below the 10-minute average in recent months.
It is determined by the rate at which 2,016 blocks can be found between difficulty adjustments. The current block intervals are indicative of a big difficulty jump. Block times as of this writing are about 7:65.
On or about October 10, 2022, the next mining difficulty target is set. If block times remain faster than usual even after the retarget, the protocol’s block reward halving could very well happen in 2023. According to bitcoinsensus.com statistics, the halving of block time could occur around December 19, 2023 at approximately 7:65 min per block interval.
Bitcoinsensus.com also shows the halving times based on an average ten minute rule. This shows that the halving will take place on May 1, 2024. Many countdown calculators use the average 10-minute rule. However, other data points show that the halving might occur in April 2024.
However, progress towards the next halving has been more than 60%. When it happens, Bitcoin miner rewards will drop from 6.25 BTC down to 3.125 BTC. Even though miners are moving at a high pace right now, they could slow down if there is a significant difficulty increase recorded on October 10, and BTC prices stay low.
This, in turn, would push the halving date back to the 2024 range and after all, there’s still well over a year’s worth of BTC block subsidies to mine. There are many things that can go wrong. Blocksbridge Consulting recently posted a blog that said the low price range and difficulty could cause bitcoin miners headaches.
“Bitcoin’s daily mining revenue per PH/s is currently around $80. If the difficulty rises 13% on Monday and bitcoin’s price stays at $19.5K, the daily revenue would decrease to $70 per (petahash) PH/s,” Blocksbridge Consulting’s Miner Weekly issue #17 notes. “That would cause mining companies to mine at all-time low revenues on a daily basis, even lower than what we saw during the summer following the May 2020 halving.”
Unless bitcoin’s price breaks the $20,000 barrier, those who employ older-generation machines or have bloated mining operations will face an even tougher time ahead.
Viabtc’s Viawallet halving metrics show that eight blockchains are expected to see reward halvings or what’s known as “reward reductions.” Dash expects a reward reduction on June 20, 2023, as rewards will shrink from 2.76 DASH to 2.56 DASH. BCH and BSV blockchains are responsible for other reduction events as well as reward halvings.
What do you think about the Bitcoin network’s progress toward the next halving exceeding 60%? Comment below and let us know how you feel about the subject.
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