Plan B (the pseudonymous founder of the stock-to-flow bitcoin price model), has been a well-known bitcoin influencer for a number of years. He now has 1.8 million followers on Twitter. However, after the S2F price model didn’t come to fruition and dropped well below the price targets in 2022, Plan B and his price model have been criticized a great deal. On Tuesday, Ethereum’s co-founder Vitalik Buterin denounced the S2F price model and said “financial models that give people a false sense of certainty” can be “harmful,” and they deserve to be mocked.
Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow Bitcoin Price Model Is Not as Popular as It Once Was
A few specific price models have been mocked this week as people have noticed that bitcoin’s price has not followed the “Rainbow” price indicator and Plan B’s famous stock-to-flow price model. The pseudonymous creator of the S2F model caught the attention of the crypto community years ago on March 22, 2019, when he published an editorial called “Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity.” When things got bullish in late 2020 and into 2021, Plan B’s statements and price model were revered and at times, the analyst’s predictions were on point.
In January 2021, bitcoin’s (BTC) USD value was seemingly following the S2F model and at the time Plan B said: “bitcoin stock-to-flow model [is] on track… like clockwork.” Toward the end of June 2021, Plan B gave an update on his “worst case scenario for 2021.” The analyst said: “Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crack down. We see weakness in June and July for a deeper reason. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K.”
It is difficult to predict the future, particularly in the long-term. EMH also states that it’s impossible to forecast financial markets. Here are five BTC valuation models for anyone still curious about models.
– Time (log regression, rainbow) and S2F too high
– UTXO/TX too low
– Difficulty/Mining_cost currently best pic.twitter.com/9FYCbWmbp7— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 21, 2022
After publishing his “worst case scenario” predictions, August, September, and October seemingly reached the targets Plan B forecasted. Although BTC reached an all-time peak of $69K per unit, November 10th, it didn’t reach the $98K mark and December wasn’t even close. Fast forward to the end of 2022’s first quarter and BTC’s price continued to slide lower, and presently, the leading crypto asset’s price compared to the S2F chart is way off the radar. His price model and Plan B have been widely criticized. BTC advocates.Steve Barbour (owner of Upstream Data), was once an example. tweeted:
S2F is an approach by a used car salesman to memeing Bitcoin to the Moon.
Buterin Says ‘Stock-to-Flow Is Really Not Looking Good Now’
In more recent times, Plan B’s model has been mocked and ridiculed more fiercely. Anthony Sassano, Ethereum advocate tweeted about the S2F model and Plan B’s predictions. “The ‘Stock to flow’ model is such an epic failure that Plan B should just delete his account,” Sassano said. “He won’t though because he sadly still has 1.8 million followers who eat up all of his hopium garbage on a daily basis.” The tweet then got the attention of the Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin who also commented on the subject.
“Stock-to-flow is really not looking good now,” Buterin said retweeting Sassano’s statement. “I know it’s impolite to gloat and all that, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of certainty and predestination that number-will-go-up are harmful and deserve all the mockery they get. Remember who supported S2F and who mocked it even back when it looked like it was accurately describing the trendline,” the Ethereum co-founder added.
Plan B Responds, Analyst’s Fans Tells Him to ‘Keep Posting — I Enjoy the Perspective You Bring’
Plan B responded to Buterin’s statement by retweeting his Tweet on Tuesday with some criticism toward “failed projects.”
“After a crash, some people are looking for scapegoats for their failed projects or wrong investment decisions,” Plan B said. “Not only newbies but [also] ‘leaders’ fall victim to blaming others and playing the victim. Remember those who blame others and those who stand strong after a crash.” Plan B also retweeted an individual who wrote that “Ethereum’s ‘ultrasound’ tokenomics are entirely based on S2F.” Plan B also explained later in the day that he shares his analysis and charts free of charge.
“So I share my analysis and charts FOR FREE,” Plan B wroteTuesday. “Never told anybody to buy or what/when/how/howmuch to buy. Now covid, China ban, Russia war and inflation tank all assets including bitcoin… and somehow some weeners blame their investment decisions on me? Lame.”
According to PlanB, she’s actually a 10.
— cryptograffiti (@cryptograffiti) June 21, 2022
As mentioned above, S2F has been targeted for being wrong, but the “Rainbow” price indicator has also been mocked during the last two weeks. In a similar fashion, the Rainbow chart has not contained BTC’s price but some people said they could add a few extra lines of purple to make the chart work again. “I’ve created a new and improved model for the rainbow chart,” the Twitter account @Levelsdennis tweeted.
A number of Bitcoiners supported Plan B while he worked and advised him to stay the course. “Indeed. Keep posting pls – I enjoy the perspective you bring,” the popular Twitter account with 1 million followers and dubbed @BTC_archive told the pseudonymous analyst.
What do you think about the recent criticisms about Plan B’s stock-to-flow bitcoin price model? Please comment below to let us know your thoughts on this topic.
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