Recent reports from central bank officials indicate that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to increase its interest rates by approximately 75 basis points (bps), next month. Moreover, markets are predicting another rise by three-quarters of a point, and CME’s Fedwatch Tool indicates there’s a near-certain (98%) chance the central bank will choose a 75bps raise. Despite the market expecting an aggressive Fed, an analyst from investors.com believes the Fed will pivot by December depending “on how financial markets act between now and then.”
Philadelphia Fed President: ‘Inflation Is Known to Shoot up Like a Rocket and Then Come Down Like a Feather’
It seems pretty certain that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate (FFR) by roughly 75bps, according to various reports and CME’s Fedwatch Tool. That’s despite the fact that politicians and a recent United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report have urged the Fed to slow down. Barclays analysts explained that the central bank might need to reduce balance sheet reductions or slow down monetary tightening.
CME’s Fedwatch Tool indicates the chance of a 75bps jump is around 98% today and a report from the New York Times (NYT) published on October 18, says “Federal Reserve officials have coalesced around a plan to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a point next month.” The NYT report further explains that the “conversation about whether to scale back is now more likely to happen in December.” Other reports indicate that futures markets investors have fully priced in a number of FFR increases that will reach 5% by May 2023.
The president of the Philadelphia Fed, Patrick Harker, explained on Thursday that he envisions the FFR well above 4% by 2022’s end. “After that, if we have to, we can tighten further, based on the data,” FT reports. “But we should let the system work itself out. And we also need to recognise that this will take time: Inflation is known to shoot up like a rocket and then come down like a feather,” Harker added. FT’s report further quotes Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, speaking at a panel about the rate rising past 5%.
Kashkari declared:
If we don’t see progress in underlying inflation or core inflation, I don’t see why I would advocate stopping at 4.5%, or 4.75% or something like that. Core inflation and services inflation must be improving and this is not happening yet.
An Analyst suspects that the Fed will pivot by December
The analyst and author at investors.com, Jed Graham, says that while a 75bps hike is in the cards for November, a “Federal Reserve pivot is coming in December,” according to his premise. Graham’s report surmises that the Fed “won’t pivot until the labor market shows signs of cracking — But once the job market appears to be rolling over, everything will change.” Graham insists that while an overheated job market gives the Fed leverage to be more aggressive, “jumbo rate hikes won’t fly when the job market has already lost steam.”
Graham’s FFR outlook report adds:
The outlook depends also on the actions of financial markets between now and then. If the emerging stock market rally is sustained and global bond or currency markets slow down, it would allow the Federal Reserve to increase its flexibility in hiking. A combination of labor market weakness and market turmoil could limit the Fed’s December quarter-point increase to 25%. This might not be the final one.
The Fed’s interest rate increases have prompted an increase in interest rates for various types of loans. According to bankrate.com, the current fixed rate of a 30-year mortgage loan in America is 7.896%. The Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday, November 2, to address the FFR and share the central bank’s economic plans.
How do you feel about the November Fed Rate hike? Are you expecting another 75bps hike? Comment below to share your views.
Images CreditsShutterstock. Pixabay. Wiki Commons
DisclaimerThis information is provided for educational purposes only. This article is not intended to be a solicitation or offer to sell or buy any product, service, or company. Bitcoin.com is not a provider of investment, tax, legal or accounting advice. The author and the company are not responsible for any loss or damage caused by the content or use of any goods, services, or information mentioned in the article.