Is Another Black Swan Brewing?

The Black Thursday market selloff in March 2020 blindsided those who took positions ahead of Bitcoin halving. It was driven by panic at COVID’s onset and subsequent lockdowns.

Could the crypto market face another catastrophic macro storm?

Omicron & The Return Of The Black Swan Trend Line

According to Wikipedia, a black swan is “an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.”

Black Thursday March 2020 qualifies perfectly for this classification. After COVID, panic set in and Bitcoin plummeted to just $3,800. The market reacted strongly, but it was an exaggerated reaction.

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Despite the “surprise” factor of the event and the fact no one saw COVID coming, technical analysis proves that these black swan events can be predicted to a point. What if there were two black swan events that occurred from the same trendline? These events would they be black swan events, or?

That’s exactly what’s at risk, given the recent Omicron strain news and related panic, and the fact that Bitcoin price is indeed up against the very trend line that was used to predict Black Thursday’s eventual target to the dollar.

bitcoin omicron BTCUSD_2021-12-02_09-34-27

Is this the trend line that could lead to another black Swan? Source: BTCUSD on  | Source: BTCUSD on

It’s unlikely that another Bitcoin Black Thursday will occur

This chart shows that Bitcoin prices were rejected by the same trendline that caused the COVID correction. This was a very intense and sharp move that led to a strong opposite rally, which took Bitcoin’s price up to $65,000 each.

Bitcoin selling off just as severely wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing, as the bounce from such an event has shown. However, this time the environment for top cryptocurrency is very different, in spite of the stock market crash and dangerous macro-economic conditions.


 Source: BTCUSD on| Source: BTCUSD on

The arrows represent two types of rejection in 2019 from previous resistance, with the red arrow representing the failure to escape the Ichimoku cloud. This resistance level was present since the beginning of bear markets, hence the Black Thursday rejection. The price action at the moment seems to be indicating that this resistance level has been flipped into support.

Blue path indicates an Elliott Wave motive wave. It has three impulses up, and two correction waves. According to Elliott Wave Theory wave 1 indicates that there is still some life in an asset. However, market participants remain skeptical about believing the bull market has started.

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Wave 2 erases most of wave 1’s gains, before wave 3. The lows in wave 1 being retested at the peak of wave 2, the market participants have more confidence in the blossoming bull trend. This is why wave 3 tends be longest and most powerful. EWT refers to this as a wave “extension.”

Wave 4, which is not in the same direction as wave 1, tends to drift sideways and cannot cross into wave 1. It is likely to experience a sharp correction similar to what occurred on Black Thursday 2020. Wave 4 will end when wave 5, although it is not clear if it did, but targets of $100,000 per coin are likely to remain for wave 5.

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