Bitcoin Is Yet To See This Historic Late-Bear Crossover

Data from Glassnode shows Bitcoin hasn’t yet seen a crossover in the current cycle that has historically marked late-bear periods.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Is Still Above Long-Term Holder’s

According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the STH and LTH realized price crossover hasn’t yet taken place during the current bear market.

The “realized price” is a metric that signifies the cost basis of the average holder in the Bitcoin market. Its value is calculated by dividing the realized cap with the total number of coins in circulation.

The average investor loses money when the BTC price drops below this value.

The cost basis for different groups of holders can be used to naturally calculate this cost base. The relevant cohorts here are the “long-term holders” and the “short-term holders”; here is a chart showing the trend in the realized prices of these two groups over the last several years:

Bitcoin Realized Price For LTHs and STHs

The value of both metrics seems to be near each other. Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain Week37, 2022| Source: Glassnode's The Week Onchain - Week 37, 2022

LTHs are all Bitcoin investors that have held onto their coins for at least 155 calendar days. STHs (short-term holders) refer to those who keep their coins in a less-than-155-days.

The graph above shows that the realized prices of the two cohorts experienced crossovers in the two last bear markets.

The LTH RP surpassed the STHRP in these cycles as the late-bear started. This crossover means that coins bought in the past 155 days are more profitable now than long-term ones. This is a sign that the market has experienced a major capitulation.

The crypto market is not yet experiencing any kind of crossover in the current bear markets, even though the cryptocurrency has already experienced 10 months’ worth of decline.

It lasted for 339 Days in 2014-15 and 145 for 2018-19. This would suggest that the current bear will still have a while to go before a bull market can start as the crossover hasn’t even happened yet.

According to the report, the cross between the metrics is expected to take place in the current month at the rate they are approaching one another.

BTC Prices

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $22.5k, up 13% in the last week. The crypto’s value has fallen 7% over the last month.

Bitcoin Price Chart

 Source: BTCUSD on TradingView| Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured Image from Hans-Jurgen Mager, Charts from and

Get more Crypto News at CFX Magazine