Fidelity’s director of Global Macro has shared his bitcoin and ether price outlook. He concluded that bitcoin is relatively cheap, but that ether might be more affordable. “Ethereum could be close to a bottom,” he added.
Fidelity’s Director on Bitcoin and Ether Price Outlook
Jurrien Timmer, director of Global Macro in Fidelity Investments’ global asset allocation division, shared his bitcoin and ether price analysis in a series of tweets Friday. Timmer is a specialist in active and global asset allocation. As a technical researcher analyst, he joined Fidelity nearly 27 years ago.
He explained the reasons why bitcoin is so cheap. “I use the price per millions of non-zero addresses as an estimate for bitcoin’s valuation, and the chart below shows that valuation is all the way back to 2013 levels, even though price is only back to 2020 levels,” he detailed, emphasizing:
Bitcoin is, in other words: it’s cheap.
“At its recent low of $17,600, bitcoin is now below even my more conservative S-curve model, which is based on the internet adoption curve,” the Fidelity director added.
Timmer noted that it is clear from looking at Bitcoin’s network growth that “the adoption curve is tracking the more asymptotic internet adoption curve, rather than the more exponential mobile phone curve.” He continued: “Per Metcalfe’s Law, slower network growth suggests a more modest price appreciation.”
However, “based on a simple power regression line, Bitcoin’s network appears to be intact,” the director opined. “That continued growth in Bitcoin’s network, combined with lower prices, means that bitcoin’s valuation is coming down.”
Global Macro Director at Fidelity, David Fidelity, shared his outlook for ether pricing via tweets:
If bitcoin is inexpensive, perhaps ethereum will be less expensive. If ETH was where BTC four years ago then this analog suggests that ethereum might be near a bottom.
As of this writing bitcoin trades at $21,584, an increase 11% over seven days and a decline 29% in the last 30 days. Ether trades at $1,217. This is up 14% in the past seven days, but has fallen 32% in the past thirty days.
What do you think about the Fidelity director’s analysis of bitcoin and ether prices? Please leave your comments below.
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