The price of bitcoin is down 16% over the last 30 days and since the crypto asset’s all-time high (ATH) on November 10, 2021, bitcoin has lost more than 38% since it surpassed $69K per unit that day. Crypto advocates debate whether there is now a bear market for bitcoin or the continuation of the bull market. To many observers bitcoin’s current market cycle is not complete, as no solid peak had formed, and speculators still expect another bubble to come to fruition.
The Four Phases of the Price Cycle — Bitcoin Traders Debate Cycle Position, Trader Insists ‘Early February Will Be the Move’
Tops and bottoms are important to many digital currency traders. There are four stages to consider: the accumulation phase; the uptrend phase; the distribution phase; and the capitulation or downtrend phase. The accumulation phase occurred 666 days before the date of March 12, 2020 when bitcoin prices fell below $4K per unit. On that day in March, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced the world was dealing with the Covid-19 outbreak and dubbed it a “pandemic.”
— Bitwatch 🟠 (@TheBitwatch) January 3, 2022
On that day, otherwise known as ‘Black Thursday,’ global markets worldwide were roiled and the crypto economy shed billions in a matter of no time, but the crypto economy recovery and accumulation phase started the very next day. BTC’s value continued its upward trend and entered the markup phase. BTC had reached $20K 2017, the all-time highest price. By January 7, 2021, BTC’s price touched $40K for the first time in history. In mid-May, BTC’s price made it to the $66K zone for the first time and slipped below that region shortly after.
Bitcoin’s price slid below the $40K zone around September 21, 2021, and people claimed that the price top was not in yet. These people were right as bitcoin’s price (BTC) reached a $69K lifetime high on November 10th, last year. Crypto advocates still believe the bull market isn’t over, and that there may be another parabolic uptrend. Most bitcoiners try to measure cycles by leveraging the time between BTC’s halving cycle.
Both the 1st & 2nd #BitcoinHalf-cycles later, price reached linear 4.236 fib extensions before reaching support at linear 2.618.
— TechDev (@TechDev_52) January 5, 2022
Typically, because of bitcoin’s scarcity, the price rises before the reward halving, and the next halving is expected 850 days from now on May 6, 2024. That’s still more than two years away and people wholeheartedly believe that the bull market that led BTC to $69K is still in play. The Bitcoiners still expect a double bubble similar to 2013, where the price surpasses $69K and then peaks higher. Expert on crypto markets Bobby AxelrodThinks observers will see the next great move in February.
“This next leg up, this next 60-day cycle beginning,” Axelrod tweeted. “Early February will be THE MOVE. Where bitcoin’s price ends up after the next move should be the cycle top IMO. At least I will be treating it as such.”
Crypto Advocates Expect a Bitcoin Price Rebound — ‘Price Crash Means the Upside Surge Is Sooner to Come’
Crypto supporter Colin, host of the Youtube show “Colin Talks Crypto” thinks the market cycle has been lengthened. “Because of the apparent lengthening cycle of this bull run, I now think it is *more likely* for us to see a $300,000 bitcoin price than a mere $100,000 bitcoin price,” the Youtuber saidFebruary 5, Colin tweeted:
I’m happy that the bitcoin price is crashing— not because I like the price to go down, but because it means the upside surge is sooner to come. It’s like, ‘let’s get this crash over with so we can move into more bullish territory!’
Other crypto enthusiasts feel the same. The Twitter account dubbed “Wicked Smart Bitcoin” wrote: “Perfect place to bounce IMO. All those who desired $43k (or more) and are now short of money will be rekt. Choppity chop chop. Don’t trade or use leverage. Only buy spot, self-custody, and HODL for a couple of cycles. Let hyperbitcoinization do its thing.”
‘The Midpoint Puke’
This is the Twitter account @therationalrootA chart showing all bitcoin price cycles as well as the all-time highest (ATH) prices was shared. “The 2021 cycle so far gave us 32 blue dots (ATH’s),” the bitcoin advocate said. “We had 72 in the 2017 cycle and 52 in the 2013 cycle. Let the fireworks for 2022 begin.” The trader, entrepreneur, and investor Bob Loukas described the cycle as a “midpoint puke.” Loukas said:
The midpoint puke is Day 31 on the bitcoin Cycle. The overlay is the Cycle from May 23rd – July 20th 2021. Not a fan of overlays, I don’t trade off them, but similar conditions. 40k is the most important amount. It is important to start early [February] timing.
Currently, bitcoin’s logarithmic growth curve shows three bull runs with extreme peaks yet the current cycle looks incomplete and almost undecided. The chart shows that there have only been two times in bitcoin’s price history where it slid below the yellow low dev line, and the last time it happened was on March 12, 2020 (Black Thursday). The end of the chart and the yellow low dev line indicates that BTC’s price won’t go lower than $25K if it maintains the power-law corridor model without deviation.
It’s safe to say that most bitcoiners even with the most advanced technical analysis skills are unsure of where bitcoin’s price is headed. Tai Zen, the crypto trader, entrepreneur, and CEO of the trading web portal cryptocurrency.market says people should wait until the bear market to acquire altcoins.
“Bitcoin is on sale under $50K (laser eye price),” Zen tweeted. “We do not recommend buying any coins during the middle of a bull market. However, if u have extra cash & itching to jump into crypto, then the only coin I would buy is BTC [and] nothing else,” Zen added.
What do you think about bitcoin’s current price cycle? Comment below to let us know your thoughts on this topic.
Credits for the imageShutterstock. Pixabay. Wiki Commons
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